Original article (in Serbian) was published on 27/1/2025; Author: Stefan Kosanović
While a general strike of dissatisfied citizens was underway in Serbia, a rally of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) was held in Jagodina on Friday, January 24. As we have seen countless times before, tabloids manipulated the number of attendees. Informer reported that more than 100,000 people were present at the gathering, while the web portal Srbija Danas was milder, estimating the number at over 50,000. On the other hand, Arhiv javnih skupova, a group of enthusiasts who have been tracking and counting gatherings in Serbia for years, estimated that around 14,000 people attended the rally. The web portal Raskrikavanje, based on drone footage published in tabloids, analyzed the area occupied by SNS supporters using the software MapChecking, which estimates the maximum number of people that can fit within a given space. The results showed that a maximum of around 30,000 people could fit in that area, assuming as many as five people stood per square meter.
The rally in Jagodina was widely covered in tabloids, but in a manner completely opposite to their reporting on, for example, student protests. Instead of smearing the participants, tabloids wrote praises. Instead of labels like “foreign mercenaries”, participants were commended for their “patriotic spirit”, and instead of significantly downplaying the number of attendees, this time, the number was drastically inflated.
“More than 100,000 people at the gathering, ‘Aco Srbine’ echoed across Jagodina! Tonight, Serbia moves into the future”, states the headline on the web portal Informer. “NEW DRONE FOOTAGE TAKES YOUR BREATH AWAY: The center of Jagodina is full, more than 50,000 people came to support Vucic”, wrote Srbija Danas, while Novosti used the following title: “DRONE FOOTAGE TAKES YOUR BREATH AWAY: The center of Jagodina is packed with people”.
The web portal Raskrikavanje used drone footage from the rally, published in these tabloids, to calculate the area occupied by the gathered crowd. The main streets in the center of Jagodina were closed to traffic, and the stage was set up in the longest street, Kneginje Milice, near the city square.
The footage shows that the crowd extended along Kneginje Milice Street, from the turn for Maksima Gorkog Street up to just past the turn for Svetozara Markovica Street, near the Cultural Center of the same name.
The footage does not clearly show whether the entire surface of Omladine Square, located opposite the stage, was fully occupied. However, for the purposes of our analysis, the entire area of the square was included just in case. Additionally, both the road and sidewalks of Kneginje Milice Street were taken into account, even though the footage shows that some areas were obstructed by structures for additional screens, vans, and other objects that prevented people from fully occupying the space.
Using the MapChecking software to estimate the maximum number of people in a given area, it was determined that the gathered crowd occupied approximately 6,000 square meters. This software includes a slider that adjusts the crowd density, and the notes clearly state that it is easy to overestimate density, as crowds are rarely evenly packed.
Even with the maximum density of five people per square meter, which is far higher than what is visible in the footage from Jagodina, the result of 30,000 people is nowhere near the 50,000 or 100,000 figures reported by pro-government tabloids.
For 100,000 people to fit into the space occupied by SNS supporters on Friday, 17 people would have to stand on a single square meter.
Space occupied by SNS sympathizers.
How much space would SNS activists need to occupy if there were truly 100,000 people, even using the unrealistic estimate of five people per square meter.
On the other hand, if we consider a realistic density for a well-attended gathering, around 2.5 people per square meter, we would conclude that 40,000 square meters would be required to accommodate everyone. That is almost seven times the area actually occupied by SNS supporters on Friday.
Arhiv javnih skupova, which closely monitors all gatherings in Serbia, estimated that around 14,000 people attended the rally in Jagodina, which aligns with the software analysis results.
Organized transport for supporters and the pressure on attendees
Ahead of the Jagodina rally, media outlets reported on the organized transportation of citizens from various parts of Serbia, along with accounts of pressure and financial incentives to ensure a larger turnout. According to the Kragujevac-based web portal Ritam Grada, there was a set quota determining how many people from that city were required to attend the rally.
“They started pressuring people to go to Jagodina. In my company, it’s been talked about for days that several buses will leave for Jagodina on Friday at 2 PM. They even called me, but I definitely won’t go”, one source from Nis told the weekly magazine Vreme.
On social media, users reported that state employees and citizens were being offered a financial incentive of 15,000 dinars to attend the rally. According to N1’s findings, workers from the Petoletka factory in Trstenik were also invited to participate. The required quota was 300 people, but sources say turnout was low. The greatest pressure was reportedly placed on workers with fixed-term contracts.
Similar reports came from Gornji Milanovac, where employees of public enterprises were allegedly required to join the organized transport to Jagodina.
“They say they are under immense pressure. Especially those on fixed-term contracts. They are essentially being blackmailed with their contracts and, above all, their jobs because their employment will be terminated if they refuse to obey the order”, said Bojan Savkovic from the Uzinat citizens’ group.
During the day, a large number of buses were spotted in Jagodina, and some attendees mentioned that part of the crowd had arrived by train.
The atmosphere at the rally was further reflected in a three-hour live broadcast by KTV television, where former Radical Party MP Nemanja Sarovic interviewed attendees. During the broadcast, very few participants admitted to being from Jagodina. The majority stated that they had come from various municipalities across Serbia and that they were employees of public enterprises.
