{"id":11757,"date":"2025-09-12T08:32:22","date_gmt":"2025-09-12T07:32:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/seecheck.org\/?p=11757"},"modified":"2025-10-16T09:05:39","modified_gmt":"2025-10-16T08:05:39","slug":"the-european-commission-did-not-rehearse-the-covid-19-pandemic-months-in-advance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seecheck.org\/index.php\/2025\/09\/12\/the-european-commission-did-not-rehearse-the-covid-19-pandemic-months-in-advance\/","title":{"rendered":"The European Commission Did Not \u201cRehearse\u201d the Covid-19 Pandemic Months in Advance"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Original article<\/a>\u00a0(in Bosnian) was published on 11\/9\/2025; Author:\u00a0Elma Muri\u0107<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

A question from a Member of the European Parliament regarding the nature of a simulation exercise from February 2019 sparked the spread of a conspiracy theory claiming that the European Commission and the ECDC had \u201crehearsed\u201d the Covid-19 pandemic months before the disease emerged.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On August 27, 2025, a lengthy Facebook post<\/a> was shared implying that European Union institutions secretly prepared for the Covid-19 pandemic before it began. The post claimed that \u201cthe European Commission was forced to admit that a secret simulation exercise, \u2018Blue Orchid,\u2019 was held in 2019.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Just a few months before the outbreak of COVID-19, the European Commission and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) rehearsed a pandemic scenario in February 2019.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The post further claims that the previously unknown \u201cBlue Orchid\u201d simulation was uncovered thanks to \u201ca parliamentary inquiry by FP\u00d6 representative Gerald Hauser,\u201d and that in an official response, the European Commission confirmed for the first time that the \u201cBlue Orchid\u201d exercise was conducted on February 8, 2019, together with the ECDC. It also says that the goal of the exercise was to test mechanisms and communication channels in crisis management, and that in March of that year, \u201cfurther workshops on pandemic preparedness followed, during which national strategies were coordinated.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It also states the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The proximity of Event 201 and the coronavirus pandemic<\/em>
The timing is explosive: in October 2019, the well-known \u201cEvent 201\u201d simulated the outbreak of a SARS coronavirus in the United States. Just a few months later, the WHO declared the Covid-19 pandemic. Were the key players already firmly expecting a global crisis back then?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The post also claims that MEP Gerald Hauser stated that the European Commission\u2019s (EC) response to his \u201cquestion on pandemic preparedness leaves key questions unanswered,\u201d and that so far no public documents or reports on the exercise have been found, either from the ECDC or the European Commission. It adds that this \u201cleaves open questions about which scenarios were rehearsed and whether any concrete measures resulted.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Identical posts were shared the same day by the Facebook pages Gra\u0111ansko bu\u0111enje and WDD Biha\u0107 (1<\/a>, 2<\/a>). In the following days, the same claims were spread by other users of this social media as well (1<\/a>, 2<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An article<\/a> titled \u201cThe European Commission admitted to a secret pandemic simulation exercise in 2019 \u2013 Event 201\u201d was also published on Arna \u0160ebalj\u2019s page<\/a> on August 31, 2025. Except for the headline, this article does not mention the European Commission at all, and the text is entirely focused on \u201cEvent 201<\/a>\u201d, a pandemic simulation exercise held on October 18, 2019, in New York.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What are the Facts?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Facebook post about the European Commission\u2019s alleged \u201cadmission\u201d that the \u201cBlue Orchid\u201d exercise was held is actually a translation of an article<\/a> published on the Austrian portal Exxpress<\/a> on August 27, 2025. The claims in the article are based on correspondence, i.e., questions that Austrian MEP and far-right FP\u00d6 member Gerald Hauser<\/a> submitted to the European Commission, and the Commission\u2019s response to one of his inquiries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The contents of these inquiries and the EC\u2019s response were published on the Commission\u2019s website. On the page titled \u201cPreparedness for the Covid-19 pandemic<\/a>\u201d, Hauser\u2019s question from March 11, 2025, can be found, in which he asked the European Commission several things, including whether the EC and its agencies participated in pandemic simulation and preparatory exercises (Atlantic Storm<\/a>, CLADE X<\/a>, Event 201<\/a> and Spars Pandemic 2025-2028<\/a>) in the United States or in any other similar exercises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also asked \u201cwhen the Commission and its agencies (especially EMA<\/a> and ECDC<\/a>) knew that a pandemic would break out in 2020,\u201d as well as \u201cin what form (human, financial, material, ideological, etc.) the Commission provided support for pandemic preparedness simulation exercises\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A public response<\/a> to these questions was issued on June 30, 2025, by Oliver V\u00e1rhelyi<\/a>, European Commissioner for Health and Animal Welfare. In his response, V\u00e1rhelyi stated that the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) published<\/a> its first rapid risk assessment titled \u201cCluster of pneumonia cases caused by a novel coronavirus, Wuhan, China, 2020\u201d on January 17, 2020, and a second update<\/a> of this rapid risk assessment on January 26, 2020. In this assessment, \u201cthe potential impact of the 2019-nCoV outbreaks was assessed as high, and further global spread as likely, warning of the possibility of a pandemic.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The response also stated the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Neither the Commission, nor the ECDC, nor the European Medicines Agency were involved in or participated in the simulation exercises (Atlantic Storm, CLADE X, Event 201, and Spars Pandemic 2025-2028). Therefore, the EC cannot comment on them.<\/em>
Before the Covid-19 pandemic, the EC routinely organized capacity-building activities to prepare for possible cross-border health threats. These included training on prevention, preparedness, and response to cross-border health threats, contingency planning for animal diseases and zoonoses, and simulation exercises focused on rapid risk assessment of chemical threats.<\/em>
Furthermore, the EC and ECDC organized the \u201cBlue Orchid\u201d exercise to test the crisis management functions, procedures, and communication channels between the EC and the ECDC. In March 2019, they also held regional expert workshops on pandemic preparedness planning in order to coordinate national approaches used by EU\/EEA countries in the planning, implementation, and evaluation of pandemic (influenza) preparedness plans.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

It was also noted that on June 2, 2014, the ECDC published<\/a> a Handbook on simulation exercises in public health institutions in the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On July 29, 2025, Hauser submitted a new inquiry<\/a> to the European Commission, stating that despite the official confirmation of the exercise \u201cBlue Orchid,\u201d no publicly available information on it can be found. Accordingly, he asked what the key elements and scenarios of this exercise were, what conclusions were drawn, and where the public can find information about what it covered, which institutions were involved, and what its results were.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the time of writing this analysis, the European Commission had not yet published answers to Hauser\u2019s questions regarding the \u201cBlue Orchid\u201d simulation exercise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is true, therefore, that the European Commission confirmed the exercise took place, and that no details about it are currently available. However, in its response to Hauser, the Commission clearly emphasized that it was an exercise to test crisis management functions, procedures, and communication channels between the EC and the ECDC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to stress that these are not unusual procedures, and the European Commission\u2019s website notes<\/a> that prevention, preparedness, and response planning are key elements for effective monitoring, early warning, and combating serious cross-border health threats, and are part of the EU\u2019s health security framework. Regulation (EU) 2022\/2371<\/a> requires the European Commission to develop an EU prevention, preparedness, and response plan. Prior to this, Regulation 1082\/2013\/EU<\/a> was in force, in which preparedness and response planning was also marked as essential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Commission, on its website, also emphasizes<\/a> the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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(…) the EU\u2019s actions to strengthen preparedness include regular exercises to test existing procedures within preparedness plans at both EU and national level.<\/em>
Through the <\/em>EU Health Programme<\/em><\/a>, support is provided via training and exercises, facilitating the exchange of experiences, guidelines, and procedures among Member States.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Fact-checking of these false claims<\/a> in Facebook posts in September this year was also carried out by the fact-checking platform Raskrinkavanje from Montenegro. In their analysis, they highlighted, among other things, that information and materials on earlier simulation exercises<\/a> conducted by the ECDC to test different responses to health crises can indeed be found on ECDC\u2019s website. It should also be noted that in June 2023, the ECDC organized a workshop in Sweden on simulation exercises<\/a> aimed at strengthening response capacity to infectious disease events, testing preparedness plans, and strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is clear, therefore, that contrary to claims made on social media, the European Commission and the ECDC did not \u201crehearse a scenario\u201d of the pandemic that emerged a year later in February 2019, but rather tested procedures and communication between the two bodies in the event of a health crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Commission also emphasized in its response to Hauser that the institution itself, the EMA, and the ECDC did not participate in simulation exercises and activities in the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, the EC\u2019s confirmation of the \u201cBlue Orchid\u201d exercise was manipulatively linked in the viral post to unfounded conspiracy theorist claims that the \u201cEvent 201<\/a>\u201d simulation, held in the US in 2019, was designed to \u201cplan\u201d the Covid-19 pandemic. Raskrinkavanje has repeatedly reported on this conspiracy theory in the past, noting that claims that this event \u201cpredicted\u201d or \u201cplanned\u201d the Covid-19 pandemic are not based on facts (1<\/a>, 2<\/a>, 3<\/a>). This simulation exercise was based on a fictional pandemic scenario, and fictitious input data were also used to model the potential impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Accordingly, we rate the claim that European institutions rehearsed the Covid-19 pandemic several months before the disease appeared as a conspiracy theory. We give the same rating to the claim that the \u201cEvent 201\u201d exercise simulated the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.The headline of the article on Arna \u0160ebalj\u2019s website, which claims that the European Commission admitted to a secret pandemic simulation exercise, is rated as manipulation of facts <\/strong>and conspiracy theory.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Original article\u00a0(in Bosnian) was published on 11\/9\/2025; Author:\u00a0Elma Muri\u0107 A question from a Member of the European Parliament regarding the nature of a simulation exercise from February 2019 sparked the spread of a conspiracy theory claiming that the European Commission and the ECDC had \u201crehearsed\u201d the Covid-19 pandemic months before the disease emerged. On August […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":11758,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[316],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fact-checks"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/seecheck.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11757","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/seecheck.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/seecheck.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seecheck.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seecheck.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11757"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/seecheck.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11757\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11776,"href":"https:\/\/seecheck.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11757\/revisions\/11776"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seecheck.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11758"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/seecheck.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seecheck.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seecheck.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}