Original article (in Croatian) was published on 11/07/2022
Almost a thousand and a half times, a post was shared on Facebook in which electric cars are baselessly declared to be a scam.
In parallel with the news about summer traffic and crowds due to the increased number of tourists, a post started spreading among Facebook users asking the question “are electric cars the biggest scam ever”. In a post that has been shared nearly a thousand and a half times, a Facebook user questions the usefulness of electric cars due to the alleged short battery life.
“If all cars were electric…
And if we were stuck in a three-hour traffic jam in the cold in a snowstorm, the batteries would have died completely.
Why do electric cars basically have no heating.
Imagine being stuck on the road all night, with no battery, heat, wipers, radio, or GPS because the battery died a long time ago.
You can try to call 911 and protect the women and children, but they can’t come to help because all the roads are closed, and probably all the police cars will be electric.
And when the roads are blocked by thousands of loaded cars, no one can move on. How to charge the batteries on-site?
The same problem during the summer holidays is kilometers-long queues.
The option of turning on the air conditioning in an electric car would only be available for a short time. The batteries would die in an instant!”, states the post on Facebook, with the addition that “no one is talking about the future problem of disposing of unused batteries!”
So what will happen if an electric car’s battery runs out on the road?
It will suffer the same fate as gasoline or diesel-powered cars, i.e., it will run out of energy to drive. Numerous fact-checking web portals have already addressed this issue because this type of publication was previously widespread among users of English-speaking social networks (1, 2, 3).
Before answering this question in more detail, we will look at other relevant facts about electric vehicles and their current technical capacities and potential to replace cars with internal combustion engines in the green transition trend.
How ecological are they?
Interest in electric cars is on the rise globally, but also in Croatia, where at the end of June, incentives for the purchase of electric vehicles and hybrid models awarded by the Fund for Environmental Protection and Energy “flamed out” in just 50 minutes after the tender was opened (Jutarnji list).
Bloomberg estimates that there are more than 20 million passenger electric cars on the roads today (including hybrid models) and more than 1.3 million commercial ones, which is a figure that means a saving of 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, or about 3 percent of world fuel consumption.
However, electric vehicles still leave an ecological footprint, which depends on several factors.
“In general, the entire life cycle that needs to be taken into account includes not only the method of producing electricity, but also the energy efficiency of the vehicle itself, the energy required for the production, maintenance and recycling of the vehicle, and the energy required for the production of the engine itself, the battery and the electronics in the vehicle”, environmental activist Bernard Ivcic from Zelena akcija (Green action) told us.
Electric vehicles have no tailpipe emissions, but the production of electricity used to charge electric vehicles can lead to carbon pollution. This amount of pollution varies depending on the method of local energy production, i.e., whether it is obtained using fossil or renewable energy sources.
Ivcic refers to a study published by the European Federation for Transport and the Environment, which states that even in the worst case, when the battery of an electric car is manufactured in China, and the car is used in Poland (where coal has a large share in the production of electricity), it would produce 28 percent less emissions than a gasoline car.
“In the most favorable case, when the battery is produced in Sweden, where the same car is used, the emissions are even 81 percent lower than with gasoline cars. Last month, they updated the report with new data that increase this difference even more, and in the already described worst-case scenario, electric cars during their life cycle result in 37 percent less emissions than gasoline cars, and in the best case by as much as 83 percent”, says Ivcic.
Carbon brief, a web portal specializing in climate topics, states that in countries with intensive coal-based electricity production, the benefits of electric vehicles are smaller and may have similar lifetime emissions as the most fuel-efficient conventional vehicles. In the UK in 2019, lifetime emissions per kilometer of driving a Nissan Leaf, one of the best-selling electric car models, were around three times lower than for the average conventional car.
Batteries
Ivcic, who believes that the most ecological approach is the establishment of a better public transport system so that a greater number of people decide to live without owning a car, emphasizes that the production of batteries requires, among others, lithium, copper, nickel and cobalt, and their mining has negative effects on the environment .
According to an analysis by the German Fraunhofer Institute, the mining of raw materials and the production of technical battery components bring certain environmental and social risks, regardless of the drive technology used. They vary depending on where the exploitation and production process occurs and are highest in countries with weak legislation and state institutions.
For example, in Congo, where about 60 percent of cobalt comes from, there are no health and safety measures at work, in which children often participate. The ecological footprint left by exploiting raw materials is visible in Chile, Bolivia and Argentina, where large amounts of water are used for lithium extraction.
The Fraunhofer Institute states that the raw materials needed for batteries, such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese and graphene, are available in sufficient quantities, but temporary shortages or short-term price increases for certain raw materials in the future cannot be ruled out.
That is why the development of batteries for electric vehicles is increasingly going in the direction of extending the life span and improving the possibility of recycling and reuse. It is estimated that today only five percent of electric car batteries are recycled (BBC).
Bernard Ivcic from Zelena akcija, referring to analyzes and research, says that the recycling of the mentioned metals has the potential to reduce the extraction of lithium by 25 percent, cobalt and nickel by 35 percent, and copper by 55 percent by 2040.
“An additional possibility is the current efforts to extend the life of batteries from the current eight to 15 to 20 years, which would reduce the need for new batteries and consequently reduce the pressure on intensive mining of these materials. In addition, when the battery is no longer suitable for use in a vehicle, it can be used stationary, for storing electricity, for example in households, and thus reduce the need to manufacture batteries for this purpose”, says Ivcic.
More and more car manufacturers are developing options for recycling and reusing batteries. Nissan thus uses the used batteries of its Leaf model in automated vehicles that transport parts to workers in factories. Volkswagen recently opened the first recycling plant in Salzgitter, Germany, where they plan to recycle around 3,600 batteries in the first year of operation.
Renault, through a consortium with the French waste management company Veolia and the Belgian chemical company Solvay, recycles all its batteries for electric cars. At the same time, they stated that they do not want to recycle only their own batteries, but also those of other manufacturers and thus cover 25 percent of the recycling market (BBC).
Possibilities
Tin Koren from the association Strujni krug (Circuit), which gathers owners of electric cars in Croatia, says that in the countries of the European Union, including Croatia, there is a great demand for the purchase of batteries that have lost their capacity and are no longer usable for driving. In many cases, they are used for so-called off-grid solar power plants, those that are not connected to the electricity distribution network.
He says that electric cars are a much simpler technology than classic gasoline and diesel vehicles in terms of the drive itself – the electric motor is an assembly with significantly fewer components than a classic engine.
“But the battery, for example, is the item where the greatest development can be seen. While electric vehicles eight to ten years ago had an average range of 80-150 kilometers and a battery made of very expensive materials, today’s technologies have raised the average range to 350-450 kilometers, and materials are used that enable much cheaper production”, says Koren.
The range of electric vehicles depends on numerous factors such as battery size, aerodynamics, vehicle weight and driving style, so it is difficult to give an average figure for the range of a particular vehicle.
In addition to batteries, charging technologies are also being developed. Until seven or eight years ago, electric vehicles were charged with a maximum power of 50 kW, while today an increasing number of electric vehicles can be charged with a power of 150-250 kW.
“This means that we can charge an average vehicle in 25-40 minutes on such fast chargers. Also, former electric cars were made on the platforms of standard cars, while special platforms are made for today’s electric cars that enable better efficiency, more space in the cabin and trunk, and similar items”, said Koren.
What will happen when the car is stuck in rush hour?
The fact-checkers of the Reuters agency previously dealt with the unfounded claim that electric cars are not useful in the long run because they can simply run out of electricity.
David Howey, associate professor of engineering sciences at the University of Oxford’s Department of Engineering Sciences, told the outlet that electric vehicles use little energy when they are stationary.
The amounts consumed by the heating and cooling systems and other electronics are relatively small — a typical stationary electric vehicle with a full battery could probably run with the climate settings and electronics “for at least a day, probably many days”, he said.
Tin Koren from the Strujni krug association says that, considering that in Croatia, as well as in the rest of the European Union, the average crowds in the peak of the tourist season are such that you wait in line for possibly two to three hours, the chances are that the driver of an electric vehicle will run out of battery very small.
“For example, if the outside temperature is pleasant and the air conditioning or heating is not turned on, the car itself consumes about 0.3 kW while it is on. With such consumption, the average electric vehicle with a 50 kWh battery would have to stand for over 166 hours in the queue to be discharged. In the case that the outside temperatures are either higher or lower, so it is necessary to have the air conditioning/heating on for more powerful work, the consumption of an electric car while standing increases to 1 kW, so it takes about 50 hours of standing in a queue to empty the same vehicle”, says Koren.
At the same time, he emphasizes, there are cases when drivers drive on the reserve itself, which means that there is a greater risk of running out of electricity or fuel in the case of gasoline and diesel vehicles.
Electric vehicles in Croatia
Statistics from the Croatian Vehicle Center record an increase in electric and hybrid vehicles in the last few years. In 2020, over 1,300 were registered, while in 2021, the number of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles exceeded the figure of 4,200. A large part of the drivers took advantage of subsidies provided by the state (FZOE) for the purchase of more environmentally friendly cars.
Back in 2014, the Fund for Environmental Protection and Energy Efficiency (FZOE) launched the “We drive economically” project, through which it co-financed the purchase of more than 4,500 more energy-efficient vehicles, electric, hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles, until 2020 with HRK 153 million.
The Strujni krug association tells us that the interest in vehicles is much higher than the number of subsidies.
According to their estimates, which are based on conversations with sales salons, only about 40 percent of interested buyers have registered for this year’s incentives. Therefore, they say, it is necessary to either create a different model of subsidies or provide significantly larger funds for incentives.
Bernard Ivcic from Zelena akcija believes that the subsidy model itself needs to be changed.
“It is bad that hybrid vehicles, hydrogen vehicles, and even natural and petroleum gas are co-financed. Hybrid vehicles result in slightly lower emissions than classic ones, but this small difference cannot justify subsidies. I probably don’t need to argue the problem with natural gas and oil in particular – these are fossil fuels that create high emissions and contribute significantly to climate change”, says Ivcic.
Infrastructure
According to the Strujni krug association, according to the latest data from 2021, Croatia has 670 publicly accessible charging stations with around 1,300 charging devices.
The opinion of the association is that the infrastructure of charging stations is good considering the number of electric vehicles on Croatian roads, but they point out that some things still need additional work.
It is necessary, they say, to install a greater number of charging stations in large public parking lots, which is a problem that could be solved by installing charging stations on public lighting poles. In addition, it is necessary to increase the number of filling stations on highways. Although they exist in almost every major rest area, it should be taken into account that an increasing number of tourists in the season come using electric vehicles.
Since the EU’s goal is to have 30 million electric cars on European roads by 2030, significant funds are being diverted to installing charging stations. However, the development is not going according to plan.
Namely, in its thematic report from May last year, the European Court of Auditors found that despite certain successes, there are still obstacles to traveling through Europe in electric vehicles. The availability of filling stations varies from country to country, payment systems do not comply with minimum requirements and adequate information for users is not available, the court said in its report.
“The EU is still very far from reaching the target value from the green plan, according to which one million charging points should be introduced by 2025, and does not have a general strategic plan for electromobility”, states the report.
Therefore, at the end of last year, the European Commission revised the Directive on the energy performance of buildings, according to which new buildings, as well as renovated ones, should have a site for charging electric vehicles next to parking spaces. What is new is that, according to the same directive, charging stations should enable “smart charging”, so that cars can be charged primarily when larger amounts of energy from renewable sources are available.
In addition, the proposal for a new regulation for the infrastructure of alternative fuels, which should enter into force already this year, sets certain goals for the member states – if the number of electric vehicles in the country is less than one percent, it will be considered that there is one percent of them, and in accordance will have to install 3kW chargers per vehicle.
The big comeback of electric vehicles
Electric vehicles in the 21st century are actually experiencing a renaissance. Namely, the first electric cars appeared at the end of the 19th century.
One of the first was made in 1890 by William Morrison, a chemist from Des Moines, Iowa, who designed a vehicle for six passengers with a maximum speed of 14 miles per hour.
By 1900, electric vehicles accounted for about a third of all vehicles on the road, and many innovators of the time worked to improve the technology. For example, Ferdinand Porsche, the founder of the company of the same name, developed the electric car in 1898, and around the same time, he created the hybrid car, a vehicle powered by electricity and a gas engine. Henry Ford, who was friends with Thomas Edison, teamed up with him in 1914 to work on solutions for a cheaper electric car.
However, in 1908, Ford introduced the Model T, a gasoline-powered car that soon became widely available – in 1912, its cost was just $650, while an electric car sold for $1,750 at the same time.
The fact that petroleum products became cheaper and gas stations began to appear all over the country contributed to the removal of the electric car from the market. In addition, at the time, few Americans outside the cities had electricity, which was also a factor that influenced the popularization of gasoline vehicles. Electric vehicles thus almost disappeared from the roads by the mid-thirties of the 20th century (1, 2).
Predictions
Bloomberg predicts that current battery price increases for electric vehicles will not dampen interest in them; the war in Ukraine and inflation, which have affected the high prices of raw materials for batteries, are also pushing the prices of diesel and gasoline to record high levels, which is why interest in electric vehicles is growing.
The projection is that by 2025 there will be around 77 million on the roads.
According to the Fraunhofer Institute, since an electric car is simpler to manufacture than a conventional car due to fewer components, significant job losses are expected.
Some studies predict that in the German region of Baden-Wuerttemberg alone, 31,000 jobs will be lost by 2030, but that 8,900 new jobs will also be created due to the specific skills required. A significant role in the production of batteries in Europe should be played by Asian manufacturers who announce the opening of new European factories.
The electrification of the transport system will need to be accompanied by additional investments in the electricity distribution network.
Bloomberg thus predicts that in 2050, according to the net-zero scenario, the electrification of almost all road traffic will lead to a 27 percent increase in demand for electricity.