Original article (in Albanian) was published on 12/4/2024; Author: Faktoje
Incorrect calculations of global overpopulation
Claim: Scientists have calculated that the end of the world will be on November 13, 2026
Verdict: False
Since the dawn of humanity, concerns about the end of the world have inevitably surfaced. Social media has amplified these theories significantly. For instance, an article published on the social media platform Threads by an informational portal carried the sensational title: ‘Imminent: Date Is Set for the End of the World.’
According to an article, the end of the world is forecasted to occur on November 13, 2026, attributed to the exponential increase in the world’s population. The article claims that this prediction stems from an equation formulated by Austrian scientist Heinz von Foerster. Von Foerster’s equation, published in the journal Science in 1960, projected that the world’s population would grow exponentially, doubling every year, leading to an unsustainable strain on Earth’s resources by 2026, ultimately resulting in the extinction of humanity.
However, more than 60 years have passed since the publication of this hypothesis, during which several factors have evolved that could impact the equation’s outcome. Firstly, the exponential population growth projected by von Foerster in 1960 has not materialized. Although the global population has continued to rise, the rate of growth has notably decelerated since the 1960s, primarily due to a decline in birth rates, as illustrated in a graph from Our World in Data. Conversely, contemporary concerns for many populations, including Albania, revolve around the rapid decline in annual births.
The mathematical formula presented fails to account for new technological advancements and potential interventions to mitigate the excessive consumption of the Earth’s resources by an expanding population. Scientists, sociologists, and economists have collectively criticized the accuracy of predictions derived solely from such mathematical calculations.
The article itself, following the sensational headline, concludes, ‘However, it is worth noting that there is no reason for concern because while the population may increase, it will not reach alarming levels.’
Moreover, the article itself, despite its sensational headline, ultimately concludes, ‘However, it is worth noting that there is no reason for concern because while the population may increase, it will not reach alarming levels.’