Original article (in Serbian) was published on 21/7/2025; Author: Marija Vučić
Last week, Serbian Finance Minister Siniša Mali took to Instagram to boast about the country’s economic progress. Comparing today’s situation to that of 13 years ago — when the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) came to power — he claimed that the average minimum wage, purchasing power, and employment rate had all significantly increased. His post was quickly amplified by pro-government tabloids, but they failed to present the full picture: namely, the sharp rise in prices over the same period, particularly when it comes to food.
Minister Mali proudly asserted that today, a poor three-member household is more likely than in 2012 to make it through the month on a single minimum wage. “These numbers best show how much Serbia has progressed and strengthened economically!” he wrote in his post.
The propaganda was quickly picked up by tabloids such as Alo, which began its Thursday coverage with the statement: “Today’s Serbia has little in common with the country ruled by the previous government in 2012.” Kurir followed on Friday, hailing a “serious economic turnaround” over the past 13 years.
Yet many citizens seem to disagree, as evidenced by critical comments under Mali’s post — especially regarding inflation and rising prices. While it is true that the minimum net wage rose from around 19,500 dinars in 2012 to 53,600 dinars in 2025, those figures are meaningless without context.
Context Is Key: Inflation and the Cost of Living
The key missing element is inflation. While both minimum and average wages have gone up, so too have living costs.
Whether you’re living on a minimum or average consumer basket, food — which makes up half of monthly expenses — has steadily become more expensive. Recent statistics show that in June, fruit and coffee were about 30% more expensive than a year ago, while vegetables saw an 11% price increase, partly due to unusual weather — late frosts in April and a dry summer.
This is just the price hike from last year. If Mali and the tabloids had extended their comparison back to 2012, they’d find the price of a standard white bread loaf (“Sava”) went from 44 to 62 dinars. Sunflower oil rose from about 120 to 200 dinars. Eggs went from 10 – 15 to over 20 dinars each. Less essential items saw even sharper increases: beef rose from 650 to over 1,500 dinars per kilo.
The United Trade Unions of Serbia “Sloga” weighed in last week, criticizing the minister’s cherry-picked statistics. “While the data tries to convince citizens inflation is slowing, the truth is that market and store prices have become a nightmare for the average person. People are increasingly forced to choose between buying fruit or paying bills. That’s not stability — it’s poverty,” said Sloga President and MP Željko Veselinović.
According to Eurostat, in 2024 Serbia had the highest food prices in the region, surpassing Bosnia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Turkey, and even EU countries like Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic—nearly matching prices in Spain and the Netherlands.
Prices have also increased across the board—from tobacco, alcohol, clothing, and footwear, to rent, water, and heating. On Friday, fuel prices went up by another dinar, and electricity is set to rise by at least 7% by the end of September.
Statistics vs. Real Life
While the numbers Mali presents are backed by Serbia’s Statistical Office and the Ministry of Trade, they tell little about actual life on the ground.
Statistically, it may be true that the minimum wage now covers a larger portion of essential needs than it did in 2012. But basing claims of economic success on this metric alone is misleading—especially when considering what the “minimum consumer basket” really entails.
According to official methodology, the basket is calculated based on the bare minimum needed for survival by a three-member household living on the edge of poverty.
In March 2025, that minimum basket was estimated at 55,527 dinars. Of that, 26,430 dinars were allocated for food—based on retail prices for a nutritionally diverse but calorie-adequate diet of 2,280 kcal/day per adult.
This is the data point Mali uses to argue that minimum wages today cover more than in 2012. But it’s hardly a sign of prosperity when a family can “survive” on one kilo each of rice and pasta, 22 kilos of white bread, 4.5 kilos of flour, 5.5 kilos of cabbage, 1.5 kilos of beans, and 7.5 kilos of potatoes.
Add to that: 400g of beef, 1.8kg of pork, 2.8kg of chicken, 2.5kg of sugar, and 600g of coffee—for an entire month, for the whole family. These quantities are cited directly from a March report by the Ministry of Trade.
Non-food items include just 1,400 dinars for clothing and footwear—again, for the entire family. Somehow, this so-called model family also manages to cover rent, water, electricity, and heating with only 11,000 dinars (less than 100 euros).
This portrayal of survival on under 100 euros for housing and utilities is far removed from reality—especially given the sharp rise in rental prices in recent years.
A recent CINS analysis of 1,600 apartment listings in major cities found that minimum wage earners stand no chance of renting in Belgrade, while even those earning the average wage face major sacrifices.
Poverty Risk Still High
Despite official claims of progress, statistics from the Statistical Office show that around 20% of Serbia’s population remains at constant risk of poverty, with the rate decreasing only marginally in recent years.
A couple with one child under 14 is considered at risk of poverty if their monthly income is below 64,000 dinars.
The most vulnerable group remains pensioners over 65, a quarter of whom lived on the brink of destitution in 2024. The average pension in May stood at 50,000 dinars — less than the average wage and even below the minimum wage. Many receive far less: agricultural pensioners average about 22,000 dinars, and some survive on less than 10,000, according to the official PIO fund.
Translated in English using AI tools, then thoughtfully refined by a human editor.
