Original article (in Serbian) was published on 6/11/2025; Author: Stefan Kosanović
Serbian Ministry of Interior claims that, on November 5, a rally of the Serbian Progressive Party in front of the National Assembly in Belgrade drew 47,500 people. However, according to software-based spatial estimates, the plateau (taking into account the large white tents that were empty) could realistically hold around 12,000 people at a density of two people per square meter. Even if we are generous and do not subtract the space occupied by the tents, at the maximum density allowed by the software, which is five people per square meter, the plateau could have held no more than about 30,000 people. While the figure for Vučić’s rally is clearly inflated, the turnout at the gathering in support of Dijana Hrka, the mother of one of the victims of the Novi Sad’s railway station canopy collapse, was drastically downplayed. The Ministry of Interior stated that only around 2,600 people attended.
The Serbian Ministry of Interior (MUP) announced that rally of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), held in front of the National Assembly building on November 5, was attended by around 47,500 people, while the parallel gathering in support of Dijana Hrka, the mother of Stefan Hrka, one of the victims of the Novi Sad’s railway station tragedy, who is on hunger strike, drew only 2,600 people.
Using the MapChecking software, which is designed to estimate the maximum number of people that can fit into a given area, we determined that SNS supporters occupied roughly 6,000 square meters.
Numerous videos and photographs clearly show that the fenced-off area covered part of Nikola Pašić Square, stretching between the National Assembly building and “Ćacilend”, all the way to the turn toward Dragoslava Jovanovića Street.
The software includes a density slider that adjusts the number of people per square meter, and even at the highest setting of five people per square meter, the maximum density allowed by the software, the estimate indicates that no more than about 30,500 people could have been present at the rally.
Photo: mapchecking.com/Visualization of the space occupied by SNS supporters
In making this estimate, we were very generous: we did not subtract the area taken up by the large empty tents, nor did we reduce the volume in places where there were fewer people, or none at all. Drone footage clearly shows that only a smaller portion of the space had a high density of people, while the rest was visibly sparse.
Photo: x.com/javniskupovi (Gathering in front of National Assembly in Belgrade, November 5, 2025)
Therefore, even in the most favorable scenario, the fenced-off area could not have held the 47,500 people, like it was claimed by the Serbian Interior Ministry.
If the MapChecking software is used more realistically, assuming an average density of two people per square meter, the estimate shows that the rally was attended by just over 12,000 people.
Photo: gkstill.com/Visualization of space at a density of two people per square meter
That figure aligns with the estimate of both gatherings made by the Archive of Public Assemblies, a group of enthusiasts that has been monitoring and analyzing crowd sizes in Serbia for years.
Their data shows that the real numbers are much closer to each other than what The Interior Ministry claims. According to their estimate, the rally in support of Aleksandar Vučić drew around 14,000 people, while the gathering in support of Dijana Hrka brought together roughly 10,000 citizens and students.
“The Interior Ministry has once again misled the public with its announcement,” the Archive of Public Assemblies stated.
The Interior Ministry also recently released its estimate for the commemorative gathering in Novi Sad, held on November 1, claiming that at the “peak,” between 11:52 and 12:08, there were 39,000 people present from across Serbia. According to that calculation, yesterday’s crowd in “Ćacilend” would have been about 8,000 people larger than the one marking the anniversary of the railway station’s canopy collapse in Novi Sad.
They are essentially claiming that on an area of roughly 6,000 square meters 8,000 persons more gathered than on a space of over 22,000 square meters – the area occupied by citizens at the commemorative event in Novi Sad on November 1.
Photo: instagram.com/stojakoviclazar_ and x.com/javniskupovi (Comparison between two gatherings – Novi Sad commemorative event on the left, and Belgrade “Ćacilend” gathering on the right – both at the time of the highest attendance)
The portal N1 published several comparative drone shots and posts from users on X, in which it is evident “to the naked eye,” without any counting, that yesterday’s gathering in Belgrade was nowhere near as large as the one in Novi Sad.
Support for Dijana Hrka
Using MapChecking to precisely estimate the number of people at the gathering in support of Dijana Hrka is not straightforward, as citizens were spread across several locations around the SNS rally. The largest crowd was at the intersection of Takovska Street and King Alexander Boulevard, where the crowd occupied around 3,700 square meters. In addition, a large number of people were also gathered at Nikola Pašić Square, behind the fence surrounding the rally in support of Aleksandar Vučić.
“Ćacilend” for days against Hrka
Dijana Hrka began a hunger strike this week after the large commemorative gathering in Novi Sad, as none of the student’s demands were met. Since she was not allowed access to the area in front of the National Assembly, she began her strike in the immediate vicinity of the institution.
“Ćacilend” (the popular name for the camp outside the Presidency in Belgrade) was “reactivated” on that occasion through the arrival of a large number of masked and, as it would turn out, aggressive SNS supporters. Since the beginning of Hrka’s hunger strike, a series of incidents has occurred: blasting loud and insulting music, verbal and physical altercations between them and citizens who gathered to support Hrka.
