Original article (in Croatian) was published on 10/06/2022
Due to the war in Ukraine and natural disasters, the number of malnourished could increase by 13 million
The current food crisis, according to the UN, could, in 2023, very quickly, turn into a food catastrophe of global proportions.
Food must never be a luxury, it is an elementary human right. However, Russia’s aggression on Ukraine could quickly become a global food catastrophe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the United Nations (UN), is one of the global crises that caused the largest increase in the cost of living in one generation. The world, said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, is facing a “new reality” three months after the start of the Ukrainian war, which builds on the effects of climate change, COVID-19 and the world’s inequality crisis.
About 1.6 billion people in 94 countries are hit by at least one dimension of the crisis, according to the latest UN Global Crisis Response Group (GCRG) report on the Ukrainian crisis.
As Guterres said, war and other crises threaten to trigger an unprecedented wave of hunger and poverty, leaving social and economic chaos behind. The crisis triggered by rising living costs will not bypass any country, and people worldwide will face hunger, energy costs will rise sharply, and the incomes of many workers will decline.
According to the UN, the number of people at risk of food supply shortage has doubled in two years – from 135 million before the COVID-19 pandemic to 276 million. But the aftermath of the war in Ukraine could increase that number to 323 million people.
According to UN forecasts, the current food crisis could turn very quickly into a food catastrophe of global proportions in 2023.
Dependence on Ukraine and Russia
Russian and Ukrainian exports, as we wrote earlier, account for as much as 30 percent of world trade in wheat, 32 percent of barley trade, 40 percent of world trade in corn, and more than 50 percent of world trade in sunflower oil. In addition, Russia is the leading exporter of fertilizers along with Belarus, and its rising prices will affect agricultural production. Already, many farmers around the world are suffering from a lack of fertilizer. According to the GCRG, African countries are short of fertilizer and need it urgently.
Due to the Russian destruction of Ukraine, it is also questionable how much agricultural land in that country will be cultivated. Earlier, Ukrainian officials announced that due to Russian aggression, the number of sown areas in Ukraine would be halved from 15 million hectares before the start of the war to about seven million hectares. Now Denis Shmyhal, Ukraine’s prime minister, has said farmers have managed to plant three-quarters of the agricultural land this year. At the same time, European officials warn that the upcoming harvest could fall by up to 50 percent.
How long the war on the territory of Ukraine will last, no one can predict. And the future production and delivery of agricultural products from the “granary of Europe”, which mostly feeds the countries of Africa and Asia, depend on it as well (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).
About 20 million tons of grain were seized in Ukrainian ports. In total, about 30 million tons of grain are in the silos under the control of Ukraine, and their total capacity is 55 million tons. There are still 13 to 15 million tons of storage capacity on the territory controlled by Russian forces. Negotiations on the unblocking of Black Sea ports are ongoing, but the question is when the grain will be delivered to the ordering countries.
Russia has cut off Ukraine entirely from the Sea of Azov. At the same time, Ukraine mined the approaches to its Black Sea ports and sank some ships to prevent a possible Russian landing from the sea. The UN has called for the unblocking of ports and the export of grain by sea, which is often cheaper than transport by road and rail. Turkey has “imposed itself” as a mediator in the negotiations.
Blocked ports
Recently, information has been released about an agreement under which the Turkish army would remove Ukrainian mines from the sea near Odesa (Ukraine’s largest export port), and grain ships would leave the port accompanied by Turkish ships to a neutral point in the Black Sea. The ships to the Bosporus would then be guarded by Russian warships that would not attack them and ensure their safe passage through the Black Sea. This possible agreement should be confirmed by both sides, Ukraine and Russia, after which the exact route of the ships would be specified. However, the question is whether and when this agreement will be realized.
The unblocking of Ukrainian ports is important not only because of the supply of countries that depend on Ukrainian grain, such as Chad, Egypt, Somalia, and Lebanon. Delivery of earlier yields would free up storage capacity for the upcoming harvest. Namely, the summer harvest of stocks of Ukrainian grain would increase by 23.5 million tons, and given that the silos are full of earlier harvests, Ukrainians are considering the formation of “mobile warehouses” on farms. Throughout this crisis, the fact that the quality of stored food is declining over time should not be overlooked.
In the 2020/2021 season, Ukraine exported 44.7 million tons of grain. Without access to its Black Sea ports, according to Mykola Gorbachev, president of the Ukrainian Grain Association, the country will be able to export 20 million tonnes of grain next year, probably mostly sunflower seeds and less corn and wheat.
All this is already being reflected and will be even more reflected in the global demand for food, rising prices, and an increase in the number of people to whom food is unavailable.
At the beginning of the aggression on Ukraine, it was estimated that the world could face a shortage of six million tons of Ukrainian wheat and 15 million tons of corn. As exports from Russia have been suspended, about eight million tons of grain will not be delivered from it. Moreover, there is a lack of fertilizer, which is why its prices are rampant and entail a record rise in food prices.
Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sudan import half or more of the wheat for their needs from Russia or Ukraine, and they feel the consequences of the war because the food was not delivered to them due to the blockade of Ukrainian ports. Egypt, let us remind you, raised the prices of bread for the first time since 1988, and subsidies for bread were introduced.
Export bans
Many countries have introduced export bans due to the food crisis. By the end of the year, Egypt had banned the export of vegetable oils, semolina, corn, sugar, lentils, pasta and beans.
According to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) data, a number of countries introduced temporary export bans. For example, Algeria thus banned the export of pasta, wheat products, vegetables; Burkina Faso millet, corn and sorghum flour; Cameroon cereals and vegetable oils; Ghana rice and corn; Iran potatoes, eggplant, tomatoes, and onions. Malaysia has banned the export of chicken, Kuwait has added vegetable oils to chicken, Pakistan does not export sugar, Tunisia fruits and vegetables… India has banned the export of corn after the start of the war in Ukraine, and fears that in the near future, although this is denied, at least for now, could also ban the export of rice.
Lebanon, a country sourcing 70 to 90 percent of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia in recent years, has banned the export of processed fruits and vegetables, sugar, bread, and grain products. Lebanon has been experiencing crisis after crisis for decades, and the war in Ukraine could further deepen the crisis in that country. It is predicted that the number of residents for whom food is difficult to access could increase further. By 2020, Lebanon’s 41 percent of the population had difficult access to food and other necessities, and by the end of last year, that share had jumped to 61 percent. As predicted by IFPRI, the war in Ukraine certainly increased that number.
The situation is particularly sensitive in Nigeria, also one of the grain-dependent countries. According to the UN, 4.4 million people in that country expect to face the crisis, and compared to 2021, that number has increased by 1.8 million. At the same time, the number of people in need of emergency care in the country has almost tripled.
Nigeria, along with Ethiopia, South Sudan and Yemen, according to the latest report of the World Food Program (WFP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) remains a hotbed of hunger. In May, Afghanistan and Somalia, which is facing extreme levels of hunger, were added to those countries. Already, 750,000 people in these countries face starvation and death due to malnutrition. The catastrophic famine in these countries has been exacerbated by Russia’s aggression on Ukraine – because they depend on grain from those countries.
According to the WFP and FAO, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Haiti, Sudan, Syria, and the Sahel region (steppe-savanna belt in North Africa between the arid Sahara in the north and wet savannas in the south, includes parts of Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad and Sudan) are still countries of “great concern”. Kenya has also been added to those countries threatened by a worsening food shortage.
Climate shocks
With the war in Ukraine, climate shocks will continue to fuel acute famine in the coming months. The WFP and FAO state that we have entered a “new normal” in which frequent and recurring droughts, floods, hurricanes, and cyclones decimate agriculture, encourage displacement and push millions to the brink.
From 2020, world poverty rates are rising. The number of people facing food shortages is also growing. The WFP and FAO recall a World Bank warning that every percentage point of global food price growth pushes an additional 10 million people worldwide into extreme poverty. According to WFP projections, rising prices as a result of the war in Ukraine could increase the number of people facing food insecurity by 47 million this year. The highest growth would be in sub-Saharan Africa.
According to FAO simulations, the number of malnourished people globally could increase by 7.6 to 13.1 million people in 2022/2023. The extent of the catastrophe is evidenced by the fact that 720 to 811 million people in the world faced famine in 2020.
At the same time, the WFP and the FAO warn of the growing problems faced by humanitarian organizations operating in countries already facing major humanitarian crises. These organizations are recording an increase in the cost of their operations and, at the same time, are facing reduced global attention. All this could lead to a diversion of international aid and an increasing lack of funds for numerous humanitarian actions worldwide.