Original article (in Slovenian) was published on 22/06/2022
Vinko Gorenak, a former minister of the interior, stated on the Tema Dneva show on Nova24TV on 3 June that the number of “illegal crossings of the border from the Muslim world” had “risen dramatically” immediately after Prime Minister Robert Golob announced that the fence on Slovenia’s southern border would be torn down.
It is unclear which statement Golob Gorenak referred to. Golob had announced the removal of the fence on the Slovenian-Croatian border prior to the election, at a 1 March press conference by the Freedom Movement. He reiterated his pledge two days after the election in an interview for TV Slovenia, and the coalition parties enshrined it in the coalition agreement.
The police report on illegal migrations in the Republic of Slovenia for the period from 1 January to 31 May this year shows 4,333 people had crossed the Slovenian border illegally, of which 2,389 from countries where Islam is the dominant religion, for example, Afghanistan, Turkey, and Pakistan.
From the start of March until the end of May 3,189 people crossed the border illegally, of which 1,647 were from predominantly Muslim countries.
Compared to February the number of illegal crossings indeed rose in March, by 101.1%. The number of persons from predominantly Muslim countries similarly rose by 105.1%.
But according to the assessment in the police report for March and April, “the trend of illegal crossings started to grow in line with expectations.”
The General Police Administration told Razkrinkavanje.si that favorable weather, in particular, was affecting “the expected seasonal increase in the number of illegal border crossings” as the conditions for crossing the border illegally improve in spring. Consequently, the number of illegal crossings starts to increase in the spring months every year, they added.
The increase in illegal migrations is driven by unfavorable living conditions in source countries, they explained. They singled out drought, famine, armed conflict, violence in source countries, and the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan as such factors. Afghanistan was the source country of a quarter of migrants who entered Slovenia illegally in the year to May according to police estimates. The police believe that the announcement of the removal of the fence “did not affect the expected growing trend of migrations.”
Data on illegal migrations for the last five years show that migrations typically start rising in March (in 2018, it was April). They peak in May (in 2017 and 2018) or August (2019–2021) and plunge after October.
From 1 March, when Golob announced the removal of the border fence during the campaign, illegal migrations indeed increased, but this was due to favorable weather and adverse living conditions in source countries, not because of Golob’s announcement. The statement is manipulative.