Original article (in Bosnian) was published on 14/03/2023
At the beginning of March, certain web portals published manipulative articles in which it was falsely claimed that “American intelligence officers admitted” that Russia reacted to an existential threat in Ukraine.
On March 8, 2023, the web portal RT Balkan published an article featuring details from the annual report of the American intelligence agencies. The headline stated that the US intelligence community “admitted” that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a reaction to an “existential threat” emanating from that country:
American intelligence officers admitted: Moscow reacted to an existential threat in Ukraine
The “confession” of American intelligence about the existence of an “existential threat” to which Russia reacted is presented in the article as follows:
How American intelligence officers see the conflict in Ukraine
(…)
Although the report accuses Russia of “unprovoked aggression” in Ukraine, several paragraphs admit that Moscow acted because it noticed an “existential threat in its neighbourhood” that could “threaten Russian national security”.
The article highlights other details from the report, including allegations of Russia’s efforts to undermine US leadership by strengthening its ties in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America; that the full effect of partial mobilization in Russia will be seen this year, as well as the observation that Russia possesses the most powerful nuclear arsenal in the world.
Articles with this interpretation of the report were shared by the following web portals: Cafe, Big portal, Pravda, Webtribune and others.
What does the report say?
The report referred to in the RT Balkan article, i.e. the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, was presented at the hearing of the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on March 8, 2023. The report deals with the assessment of threats to US interests, while separate chapters are devoted to China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
Russia Today Balkan
Russia Today (now RT) is a media controlled by the Kremlin and financed from the state budget of Russia (link), and its broadcasting has been banned in the European Union since March 2022 due to its support of Russian aggression, propaganda and the spread of disinformation (link). The version of this media in the Serbian language – the web portal RT Balkan – was launched on November 15, 2022 (link).
Russia is covered in five pages of the report, namely on the issues of regional and global activities and goals, the war in Ukraine, military power and weapons of mass destruction, operations of malignant influence and activities in outer space.
In the section on regional and global activities and goals, it was stated that Russia’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine is a tectonic event that is reshaping Russia’s relations with the West and China, and that the escalation of the conflict into a military conflict between Russia and the West would be a risk the world has not faced for decades.
It stated that Moscow will continue to use a range of means to achieve what it sees as its interests and continue to undermine the interests of the US and its allies. The assumption was mentioned that it could be military, security, cyber and intelligence means and a malignant influence.
As for the “confession of American intelligence” that Russia in Ukraine “reacted” to an existential threat, it is not in the report.
Namely, the report states the expectation that Moscow will engage in crisis situations when it sees that its interests are at stake, that the “cost” of the activity is low, when it sees an opportunity to profit from a power vacuum or, as was the case with the invasion in Ukraine, when it “perceives an existential threat in its neighbourhood”.
We expect Moscow to engage in crises when it sees its interests threatened, when the anticipated cost of action is low, when it sees an opportunity to take advantage of a power vacuum, or, as in the case of the use of force in Ukraine, perceives an existential threat in its neighbourhood that could destabilize Putin’s rule and threaten Russian national security.
When it comes to an existential threat, the report uses the English verb to perceive, which translates as “to achieve awareness or understanding (of something) or to consider something as such”. This verb also means “to become aware through the senses, especially in the sense of seeing and observing”.
However, in the RT Balkan article, the sentence about the existential threat was presented as “Moscow noticed an existential threat”, which creates the impression that such a threat really existed and that it was “acknowledged” in the report.
Although the report does not directly assess whether this threat was real or not, due to the specific choice of words and the earlier description of Russia’s attack on Ukraine as “unprovoked aggression”, the claims about the “recognition” of the existence of an existential crisis to which Russia reacted are manipulative.
The manipulative presentation of the report corresponds to the propaganda narrative of declaring Ukraine “guilty” of the war, in which the Russian invasion is “justified” by the existential threats present in that country, which Russia seeks to eliminate through war. One of the most frequently used such “threats” is the alleged ubiquitous Nazism of the Ukrainian government. You can read detailed analyzes of the propaganda narratives that are present in our media space at the links below:
https://raskrinkavanje.ba/analiza/cemu-sluzi-prica-o-ukrajini-kao-nacistickoj-drzavi
https://raskrinkavanje.ba/analiza/fiktivni-narativ-o-zapadu-kao-krivcu-za-rat-u-ukrajini
We consider the claim suggesting that the report of the American intelligence agencies “admitted” that Russia reacted to an existential threat by attacking Ukraine, implying that the existence of such a threat was confirmed, to be a manipulation of facts.