Original article (in Slovenian) was published on 31/05/2023
Just under a third of Ljubljana’s population would have to find a new permanent or temporary place to stay in the event of a division–8 earthquake on the European macroseismic scale.
The portal Svet24.si published on 17 May an article with the headline Serious warning by experts: there will be a devastating earthquake in Slovenia.
The article goes on to explain that science “does not yet have an answer” as to when an earthquake will happen, nor is it possible to reliably predict the location, time, or intensity of an earthquake, citing Peter Fajfar, a retired professor of earthquake engineering and member of the Slovenian Academy of Sciences and Arts (SAZU).
Fajfar made this claim in an article on earthquake risk in Slovenia which was published on the SAZU website in 2021, after major earthquake in Croatia. He argued, for example, that “unfortunately there is no doubt that there will be a devastating earthquake in the territory of Slovenia, just as it happened in Croatia.” He added that this could happen soon, but it might also happen in a hundred years or more.
A reliable prediction of the location, time and magnitude of an earthquake that would allow the population to retreat to safety is not yet possible in his view. He noted, however, that the most vulnerable buildings are those which were built after the Second World War, before 1964. A large part of these, except for smaller single-family homes, would be at great risk in the event of a strong earthquake.
“The title of the article may indeed be a bit sensationalist. It corresponds to the truth, but it lacks the time dimension, and perhaps gives an uninformed reader the impression that an earthquake will happen soon,” Fajfar explained to Razkrinkavanje.si.
He added that Ljubljana had already been hit by a strong earthquake in 1895 and it will surely be hit again one day. For now, however, no one can predict when. “The earthquake risk maps we use for planning give estimates of ground accelerations for an earthquake that is expected to occur once every 500 years.”
The Environment Agency told Razkrinkavanje.si that the headline of the article implying that a damaging earthquake will occur in Slovenia is “technically correct, as devastating earthquakes are possible in Slovenia”. However, it is not appropriate because it “implies that an earthquake is imminent”.
They explained that “devastating earthquakes have happened in Slovenia before and will happen in the future, but they are very, very rare. We cannot predict their timing and location. However, we can estimate the potential power of earthquakes in a given area over a certain period of time.”
Seismic risk is a combination of seismic hazard, building vulnerability and population density. The Ground acceleration map of seismic hazard shows that the area bordering Italy, west of Bovec, is the most earthquake-prone area. The risk around Idrija and in east of Slovenia, around Brežice, is almost equally high. Ljubljana and its surroundings are also among the high-risk areas, but this is mostly due to the high population density there, according to the Environment Agency.
In March last year the Ministry of Natural Resources and Spatial Planning drafted a Resolution on strengthening earthquake safety, which aims to improve earthquake safety. They stressed that more resources should be invested in the comprehensive retrofitting of buildings. They did not explain how much money is required. One of the solutions mentioned was the training of building professionals and the provision of funding for the renovation of buildings at risk in earthquakes. The resolution is currently undergoing inter-ministerial coordination.
We will publish a response from Svet24.si as soon as we receive it.
The claim in the article title that a devastating earthquake will occur in Slovenia is clickbait.