Original article (in Serbian) was published on 6/5/2024; Author: Teodora Koledin
At the end of April, meteorologist Nedeljko Todorovic appeared as a guest on the podcast “Energija Sputnjika“. Known for his strong climate skepticism, Todorovic frequently features in the media despite his controversial views. In this episode, he discussed temperature variations on both global and local scales, downplaying the scientifically confirmed warming of the planet. After analyzing several of Todorovic’s statements, we concluded that his presentation of the climate change issue is, at the very least, debatable.
Is Global Warming Slowing Down?
“You should not be afraid of drastic temperature changes. It has been on the rise until now, but the latest measurements from seven to eight years ago indicate that this trend is now slowing down. In the next ten to twenty years, there will be a slight drop in temperature, but this does not mean that there will be a change in the climate, just as this temperature rise is not a change in the climate”.
Changes in the rate of warming of the planet are fully expected by the scientific community. They do not represent anything “strange” nor do they disprove the existence of global climate change. If temperature growth slows down in one period, this does not necessarily mean that the “trend” of warming has stopped. So, for example, from 1998 to 2013, the rate of global mean surface warming slowed, which does not mean that climate change has disappeared.
Despite the statements of meteorologist Todorovic, in the last “seven to eight years”, average global temperatures have been continuously increasing. According to NASA’s data, in the previous year, the average temperature of the Earth’s surface was the highest recorded. Also, all 10 warmest years from 1850 to the present have occurred in the last decade. That’s no longer news. In 2007, scientists reported that 11 of the previous 13 years were the warmest on record since measurements began.
An article published on the web portal Carbon Brief (which reports on climate and energy policy topics), explains that “drawing the conclusion that warming has “flatlined” relies heavily on looking at data over a short period in isolation.” For example, if we observe only the period from 2015 to 2022, we can get the impression that the rate of temperature increase is quite “linear.” On the other hand, if we slightly change the period of observation and focus on the period from 2011 to 2018, we can draw an opposite conclusion – that the rate of global warming has increased sharply to a full 5.6 °C per century. This is an exaggerated estimate, given that the global temperature is currently rising by roughly 0.2°C (±0.1°C) per decade. In both cases, the wider context is ignored, which then results in inaccurate observations.
At the same time, it should be mentioned that scientists have offered possible explanations for the so-called stagnation of the Earth’s surface warming in a certain period. One of the most probable suggests that natural climate cycles (La Niña and the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) actually caused changes in ocean circulation and thus “moved” excess heat into the deep ocean. In short, heat was still present, just not on the surface of our planet.
Are Temperature Changes in Budapest “Negligible”?
“When we take Belgrade into account, and when we compare it parallel to Budapest, there is a good correlation between Budapest – Zagreb – Belgrade. In Budapest from 1780 to the present day, it can be seen that the temperature change trend is 0.3 degrees. Negligible, so to speak. Especially if we also take into account that this is the influence of local microclimatic changes.”
Given that Todorovic drew parallels between Belgrade and Budapest several times during the show, and called the increase in temperature in the neighboring country “negligible”, we decided to investigate climate changes in Hungary and its capital.
In the Hungarian National Strategy for Climate Change from 2018, information was highlighted showing that the average annual temperature in this country increased by a full 1.15°C in the period from 1901 to 2017. Moreover, it surpassed the average temperature increase of 0.9°C at the global level.
When it comes to future predictions about the climate in this area, it was stated that “projections show much fewer frosty days by the middle of this century compared to the period from 1961 to 1990”, while at the same time “more summer days and extreme heat” are expected. Identical predictions can be found in the report titled “Climate Change and Hungary: Mitigating the Hazard and Preparing for the Impacts,” which was created in Budapest in 2010.
In 2014, the Hungarian meteorologist and professor Probald Ferenc wrote a scientific paper titled “The urban climate of Budapest: past, present and future”, in which he emphasized that temperatures in the Pannonian Plain are “doomed” to rise in accordance with the medium projection of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). At the same time, he added that the warming will be more intense during summer periods, with an expected increase in temperature of at least 4°C by the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period at the end of the 20th century, but also that this change will be accompanied by a dramatic increase in the frequency of heat waves.
The European Network for Data-Based Journalism has also published data on rising temperatures in the Budapest area. As they point out, since 1900, “the average temperature in Budapest and its surroundings has increased from an average of 9.6°C between 1900 and 1999 to an average of 10.7°C between 2000 and 2018.”
How Does Carbon Dioxide Affect Plants?
“Experts who understand carbon dioxide and the chemistry of the atmosphere long ago showed that carbon dioxide is not a harmful gas, but that it is food for all plant life on the globe.”
In March of this year, FakeNews Tragac already reported on the distorted claims that carbon dioxide is not a harmful gas but, on the contrary, useful and that it promotes the growth of plants. Indeed, plants grow somewhat faster with greater exposure to this compound. However, not everything is so simple. Scientists have found that plants lose their nutritional value when exposed to higher levels of CO2, despite growing faster. Thus, for example, mathematician and biologist Irakli Loladze discovered in his work that “elevated CO2 levels were found to reduce the overall concentration of 25 important minerals—including calcium, potassium, zinc, and iron—in plants by 8% on average.”
Similar results were obtained by researchers who examined the influence of increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide on protein concentration in rice, barley, wheat, soybeans and potatoes. As they pointed out in the conclusion, each of the observed cultures “had lower protein concentrations when grown under conditions of elevated levels compared to natural CO2 levels.” In the case of wheat, barley and rice, the concentration of protein in the grain decreased by some 10 to 15 percent, while for potatoes the decrease in protein content was 14 percent. In soy, there was a much smaller decrease in protein concentration of 1.4 percent, but the authors also assessed this decrease as statistically significant. “The effect of atmospheric CO2 on crop protein therefore seems likely to be of genuine importance for human nutrition in and beyond the 21st century”, the authors conclude at the end of their paper.
