Original article (in Croatian) was published on 10/6/2024; Author: Ivica Kristović
The European Parliament elections in Croatia were marked by a catastrophically low turnout of only 21 percent, the lowest among all EU member states.
A low turnout of only 21.35 percent marked the elections for the European Parliament in Croatia, where the HDZ won six mandates, the SDP four, and the Homeland Movement and We Can! (Mozemo) one mandate each.
With this data, Croatia is at the very bottom among EU members, above it is Lithuania with a turnout of 28.94 percent, while no other country recorded less than 30 percent of those who went to the polls. According to the latest data, the turnout at the level of the entire EU yesterday was 50.8 percent, which is at the level of the turnout from 2019 (50.6 percent).
This year’s turnout in Croatia can only be compared with the first elections for the European Parliament after joining the European Union when the turnout was even slightly lower than yesterday – 20.83 percent. Throughout the following cycles, interest in the European elections in Croatia grew somewhat, so that in 2014, there the percentage of voters was 25.24 percent, and in 2019, 29.85 percent. However, when you look at the numbers, in 2013, 780,000 voters went to the polls in Croatia, in 2014, 950,000, in 2019, more than 1,100,000, so the number dropped to 752,000 yesterday.
HDZ’s good result
The good result of the HDZ in yesterday’s elections is reflected in the fact that the party of Andrej Plenkovic, who carried the party list even though he clearly announced in the campaign that he would not take a seat in the European Parliament, “strengthen” its result from five years ago in terms of mandates, both in percentage and in the number of votes, although the turnout was lower.
According to the latest results of the State Election Commission, HDZ won 34.60 percent or 256 thousand votes in Croatia, while abroad they achieved 68 percent or 8,120 votes. Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic received the most votes on the list (39.7 percent of the list or 101,820 votes in Croatia).
Given that he will not go to the European Parliament, HDZ will be represented by Dubravka Suica (8864 votes), Davor Ivo Stier (25,424 votes), Karlo Ressler (6,273 votes), Nikolina Brnjac (7,734 votes), Zeljana Zovko (6,707 votes), and Suncana Glavak (4,840). If Suica or someone else from the list becomes a commissioner in the Commission, the list could also go down to Tomislav Sokol. HDZ received 8,120 votes abroad, and the interesting fact is that Zeljana Zovko received the biggest number of votes there, even more than Plenković (57 percent or 4,660 votes). The independent Marijana Petir was also “trying to get” her seat in the European Parliament from the last, 12th place, on the HDZ list, but in the end, she did not cross the threshold of 10 percent of the list, although she received 21,067 votes, which was a percentage of 8. 21 percent.
In the 2019 elections, HDZ won 22.7 percent or 244,076 votes in Croatia and 9,347 abroad. At that time, Karlo Ressler led the list, and HDZ won four mandates, two less than this year. This year, HDZ won 11.8 percentage points more than five years ago and around 11,000 more votes. It should be noted once again that this year’s turnout was significantly lower than in 2019, which makes HDZ’s result even better.
SDP increased the percentage compared to 2019
The coalition gathered around the SDP won four mandates with 25.96 percent, the same as in 2019. From their list, the incumbent Biljana Borzan, who received 43 percent of the list’s votes, or 83,656 votes, will again have a seat in the European Parliament. Tonino Picula, a long-time member of the European Parliament, also secured his place through preferential votes, from the last position on the list. He received 15 percent of the list’s votes or about 31,000 votes. From the SDP list, Predrag Matic Fred (17,239 votes) and Romana Jerkovic (1,005 votes) have secured their seats in the European Parliament. Dalija Oreskovic from the People with a First and Last Name party (11,567 votes) and independent Bojan Glavasevic (10,297 votes) also received a respectable number of votes on that list, but it was not enough to move up the list and win a mandate in the European Parliament. Glavasevic did not even manage to secure a mandate in the Croatian Parliament and announced his retirement from politics yesterday.
Five years ago, SDP also won four mandates in the European Parliament. At that time, they received slightly more than 200,000 votes, or 18.71 percent. In yesterday’s elections, they increased the percentage by about 7 percentage points, although they received ten thousand votes less than in 2019.
The Homeland Movement and We Can! have one mandate
In yesterday’s elections, the Homeland Movement confirmed itself as the third political group on the Croatian political scene. They received around 66,500 votes in Croatia and abroad, which brought them 8.8 percent of the vote. Although the list was carried by the president of the party, Ivan Penava, the largest number of votes (35,303 votes or 53.99 percent of the list) went to Stephen Nikola Bartulica, who was also the most visible candidate during the election campaign due to the lack of transparency regarding the entry of assets into the asset card (1, 2) and persistent refusal to explain what he lives on after two loans “eat up” all his income. In the end, he announced through his lawyer that his mother helps him financially.
The political platform We Can! won the last Croatian mandate in the European Parliament. It received 5.9 percent or about 44 thousand votes. Ivana Kekin received the most votes on the list (11,307 votes or 25 percent of the list). She was in last place, and already before the election she announced that, if she won the mandate, she would not go to the European Parliament, but would remain in the Croatian Parliament. From that list, the holder Gordan Bosanac, who received 6,134 votes or about 14 percent of the list, will go to the European Parliament.
Five years ago, the platform We Can!, which was still less known to the general public, entered the European Parliament elections in a coalition with the New Left and ORaH. With 1.79 percent or 19,313 votes, they remained well below the electoral threshold. The list was carried by the current mayor of Zagreb, Tomislav Tomasevic, who received 5,429 votes. In the meantime, We Can! won parliamentary mandates twice and managed to come to power in Zagreb in the local elections. However, if they had won only two thousand fewer votes in these elections, they would have remained without that one mandate in the European Parliament.
Tragedians and the biggest hit of the election
The biggest tragedy of the election is IDS’s Valter Flego, who, although he crossed the electoral threshold of 5 percent, was still left without a new mandate in the European Parliament. Flego led a broad coalition composed of liberals, social democrats, regional parties and the minority SDSS and won 5.61 percent or a respectable 41,600 votes. If Flego had won about 2,460 more votes, then he would have received one mandate, and HDZ would have dropped to five mandates. Five years ago, Flego won the mandate on the coalition list of HSS, Glas, IDS, HSU, PGS, Democrats and Labor with a smaller percentage than he had yesterday, 5.19 percent, but this year D’Hondt method did not help.
Mislav Kolakusic did not repeat his mandate in this year’s elections either. Five years ago, Kolakusic’s list was fourth in strength with 7.89 percent or 84,765 votes. In yesterday’s elections, the list of his party Law and Justice won 2.99 percent or 22,214 votes. The former president of the Living Wall party, Ivan Vilibor Sincic, was also on that list. The Living Wall split because five years ago they could not agree on who would go to the European Parliament, and they received 5.66 percent or about 61 thousand votes.
Ladislav Ilcic did not repeat his mandate either. Ilcic entered the European Parliament as a replacement for Ruza Tomasic, with whom five years ago he was on the list of right-wing parties that won 8.52 percent or 91,546 votes. Now Ilcic won only 1.22 percent or 9085 votes with his list.
The majority of independent lists repeated the failure of 2019. Five years ago, Bozo Petrov’s party remained below the threshold with 4.67 percent or slightly more than 50 thousand votes. In yesterday’s elections, in the coalition with the Croatian sovereignists and the HSP, they achieved an even lower result – 4.02 percent, and they received around 30 thousand votes. This result probably hurts them even more considering that in the recently held parliamentary elections, they won 11 seats in the Parliament and were the fourth strongest list in Croatia. However, in the meantime, the married couple Raspudic left them, which probably had an impact on their result as well (and on the home field, the sovereigns also left them).
On the other hand, the hit of the election is the Croatian TikToker Nina Skocak, who led the independent Gen Z list of young people. She won more votes than the established Most – 4.06 percent or more than 30 thousand votes. However, she lacked about 14,000 votes to enter the European Parliament.
Results in continental Croatia
In the recent elections for the European Parliament, HDZ achieved the highest result in 15 Croatian counties, SDP won in five, while in Istria the coalition list of IDS member Valter Flege got the most votes.
In Zagreb County, HDZ won with 32.8 percent, and SDP came second with 28.4 percent. In that county, five years ago, SDP’s list won with 19.3 percent, while HDZ had 18.7. In Krapina-Zagorje County, SDP won 40.5 percent, and HDZ 31.2 percent, and five years ago they were almost equal (SDP 23.99 percent, HDZ 23.66 percent). In Varazdin County, SDP won 32.5 percent and HDZ 31.3 percent, while five years ago SDP had 19.7 percent and HDZ 19.2 percent. In Medjimurje County, SDP won 35.2 percent, HDZ 24.3 percent, while five years ago HNS had 30 percent, SDP 21.8, and HDZ 13.6.
In Koprivnica-Krizevac County, HDZ won 34.8 percent, and SDP 34.1 percent. In 2019, SDP won with 26.2 percent, and HDZ had 22.6 percent. In Bjelovar-Bilogora County, HDZ won 38.8 percent (24.5 in 2019), and SDP 25.6 percent (19.3 percent in 2019). In Sisak-Moslavina, HDZ won with 45.6 percent, while SDP won 21.3 percent. Five years ago, HDZ had 24.4 percent, and SDP 15.3 percent. In Karlovac County, HDZ won overwhelmingly with 42.8 percent (31.1 in 2019), and SDP won 22.19 percent (17.6 in 2019).
Results in Slavonia’s Counties
In Virovitica-Podravska, more than half of the voters voted for the HDZ (52.3 percent), while the SDP won 22.6 percent of the votes. In 2019, HDZ won 42.3 percent, and SDP 15.5 percent. In Pozega-Slavonia, HDZ won 48.5 percent (36 percent in 2019), and SDP 19.8 percent (14.6 percent in 2019). In Osijek-Baranja, HDZ is first with 39.1 percent, SDP second with 26.5 percent, while DP won 11.1 percent. Five years ago, HDZ had 25.5 percent, and SDP 17.7 percent.
In Brod-Posavina County, HDZ is first with 46.5 percent (34 percent in 2019), and SDP is second with 21.8 percent (16.4 percent in 2019). In the last Slavonia’s county, tVukovar-Srijem, the HDZ won 37.9 percent, the SDP 16.5 percent, and the Homeland Movement 15.5 percent. Five years ago, HDZ had 27.3 percent in that county, the coalition around Hrast had 15.3 percent, SDSS 12.4 percent, and SDP 10.9 percent.
Flego won in Istria, HDZ dominant in Dalmatia
Istrian County is the only one where the HDZ and SDP monopoly was broken. The list led by IDS member Valter Flego won 47.4 percent, SDP won 18.5 percent, and HDZ 11.9 percent. Five years ago, the coalition with IDS won 41.2 percent, SDP 15.9 percent, Living Wall 8.1 percent, Kolakusic 7.8 percent, and HDZ only 6.6 percent. In Primorje-Gorski Kotar County, SDP won with 34.9 percent, and HDZ won 27.9 percent, while in 2019, SDP had 27.2 percent and HDZ 16.7 percent. In Lika-Senj County, HDZ won more than half of the votes – 52.7 percent, while SDP won 10.9 percent. Five years ago, HDZ had 40.5 percent, and SDSS and SDP each had 10 percent.
In the Dalmatia’s counties, HDZ won overwhelmingly. In Zadar, it won 42.5 percent (30.7 percent in 2019), and SDP 22.5 percent (15.9 percent in 2019). In Sibenik-Knin County, HDZ won 40.9 percent, and SDP 21.2 percent. Five years ago, HDZ won 30.8 percent, SDP 15.2 percent, and the coalition around Hrast 11.3 percent. In the Split-Dalmatia County, HDZ is first with 40.6 percent, SDP second with 23.7 percent, and DP third with 11.6 percent. In 2019, HDZ won 26.8 percent, SDP 17.6 percent, and the coalition around Hrast and Most about 8.9 percent. In the southernmost Croatian county, HDZ won 45 percent, and SDP 21 percent. Five years ago, HDZ had 34.3 percent, and SDP 16.7 percent.
Results in the biggest cities
The HDZ can also be satisfied with the results in the largest Croatian cities, as it achieved victories in Split and Osijek, where it lost to the SDP five years ago, and increased its results in Zagreb and Rijeka.
In the Croatian capital, the SDP party won with 29 percent, the HDZ was second with 24.5 percent. We Can! was in third place with 14 percent, which in Zagreb has the mayor Tomislav Tomasevic and a strong majority in the city assembly. The DP list was fourth with 10.4 percent of the vote. Five years ago, SDP won in Zagreb with 21.3 percent, HDZ was second with 13.6 percent, the right coalition Hrast, HKS, HSP AS and UHD 10 percent, and Mislav Kolakusic 9.5 percent.
In Split, HDZ’s and SDP’s lists are equal (HDZ 31.38 percent, SDP 31.20 percent), DP is in third place with 10.9 percent, and Most is fourth with 5.7 percent, while We Can! stays below the threshold with 4.5 percent. Five years ago, SDP won in Split with 22.3 percent, HDZ had 18.8, Kolakusic 9.7, the coalition around Hrast 8.2, Most 7.8, Independent for Croatia 7.6, and Centre and Union of Kvarner 5.1.
In Rijeka, SDP won with 36.4 percent, HDZ came in second with 24 percent, We Can! came in third with 8.8 percent, the coalition around IDS got 7.4 percent, and the Homeland Movement got 4.8 percent. Even five years ago, SDP won in Rijeka with 28.5 percent, HDZ was second with 13.6 percent, Kolakusic got 10 percent, the coalition around IDS got 7.6 percent, the one around Hrast 6 percent, and Living Wall 5.6 percent.
In Osijek, the HDZ won 35.1 percent, the SDP 31.4 percent, and the Homeland Movement 10.8 percent. Five years ago, SDP won in Osijek with 22.5 percent, HDZ was in second place with 21.5 percent, the coalition around Hrast, as well as Kolakusic won 10.3 percent, Living Wall 5.8 percent, and Most 4, 99 percent.
HDZ returned to the traditional six mandates
In yesterday’s elections, the dispersion of votes by lists was less, which led to more mandates for the strongest one, HDZ’s list.
In the first elections for the European Parliament in Croatia in 2013, HDZ’s list won six mandates, SDP’s five, and Labor’s Nikola Vuljanic also won a seat in the parliament. A year later, in 2014, HDZ also had six mandates, SDP four, while Davor Skrlec from Orah also won a mandate. In that mandate, Croatia had 11 seats in the European Parliament. In the 2019 elections, HDZ and SDP won four mandates each, and even four more lists and MPs Kolakusic, Sincic, Flego and Tomasic entered the European Parliament.
With a smaller number of lists that crossed the threshold, the HDZ returned to its “traditional” six mandates, while the SDP won four seats in the European Parliament for the third cycle in a row. The novelty of these elections is that for the first time, the right-wing Homeland Movement and the green We Can! are entering the Parliament.
