Original article (in Bosnian) was published on 9/13/2024; Author: Nerma Šehović
False claims are circulating on social media that the official figure of Earth’s population reaching eight billion people, has been falsified as part of a malicious plan by global elites.
On the Telegram channel TABU, a four-minute video was posted on September 7, 2024, discussing the “myth” of Earth’s overpopulation and claiming that the statistic stating the planet has eight billion people is inaccurate. The video description states the following:
I believe I’ve shared this before, but it’s worth repeating since the lie about Earth’s overpopulation is one of the leading reasons/excuses for many burdens imposed on us.
“In reality, if all people were squeezed into a population density of 27,000 per square mile, similar to New York City, eight billion people would only fill the state of Texas, leaving the entire rest of the world uninhabited. So, the idea that Earth is dangerously overpopulated and that governments must take drastic measures to combat this problem is yet another paper tiger trying to scare us into submission.
…
The biggest threat to humanity’s prosperity is governments, not population growth!!!”
In the video, which is in English and features translation in our language, aside from the claim that eight billion people could live in Texas, it is argued that the official figures on world population size are false, presenting “alternative” calculations by an unnamed author.
For example, India supposedly has a population of over 1.4 billion citizens. But when practical calculations are made using the UN’s own figures, how they reached such a high number is as clear as mud. Taking their official population data from the 300 largest cities in India, from 12.4 million in the largest city of Mumbai to just over 100,000 in the 300th city of Aurangabad, adding them all together barely totals 200 million out of the supposed 1.4 billion.
The author of the video applies a similar “calculation” method to the entire world, summing the population of the 300 most populous cities globally and concluding that the world population is not eight billion but less than three.
As of the date this analysis was written, the video from the TABU channel had received nearly 2,000 views and was also shared on several Facebook profiles.
Claims of “overpopulation myth” and a “falsified” global population figure have actually been circulating online in our language area for over a decade. The first explicit presentation of these claims in a “conspiratorial” context was found in an article published on the web portal Pecat on April 5, 2013.
How do we know how many people live on the planet?
According to UN estimates, there were 8,091,734,930 people living in the world in 2023.
The UN’s Population Division (UNDP) is responsible for estimating the number of people on the planet. UNDP calculates population numbers by processing and synthesizing a vast amount of data, including fertility rates, birth rates, migration, and mortality data, which are collected from government census reports, independent demographic surveys, birth and death registries, academic studies, and data provided by the UN Refugee Agency and the World Health Organization (link).
Thus, the estimate does not rely solely on censuses, as they are not always reliable and are not conducted regularly in all countries, but rather takes into account various data from multiple sources.
The official figure for the global population is an estimate, as it would be impossible to count every person on the planet. While it may not be entirely precise, there is no evidence that these numbers are intentionally falsified or that the estimate is manipulative, and it is certainly more reliable than the estimate from an unnamed social media author.
For example, India conducted its last census in 2011. According to that census, the country had a population of 1.2 billion people at the time. The author of the video claims that India’s population is significantly smaller and uses as “proof” the fact that his total of the population in the 300 most populous Indian cities is around 200 million. In addition to certain data being incorrect (for example, Mumbai had 18 million residents in 2011, not 12 million), his logic is flawed.
India has 28 states, 498 large cities (with populations around 100,000 or more), nearly 7,500 smaller towns (with populations under 100,000), and more than 600,000 villages.
Therefore, the population of the 300 most populous Indian cities absolutely does not represent the majority of India’s population.
According to the 2011 census, two-thirds of Indians, specifically 833.5 million people, live in rural areas, while one-third, 377.1 million, live in urban areas. If we add those two figures together, we get a population of approximately 1.21 billion.
Summing the populations of large cities is generally not an adequate way to calculate how many people live on the planet because most people in the world do not live in large cities. According to 2020 data, about 44% of the world’s population lives in larger cities, about 43% in smaller cities and suburbs, and about 13% in rural areas. The percentage of people living in urban areas is higher in developed countries and significantly lower in underdeveloped ones.
The claim that the world’s population is less than three billion people, “supported” by summing the population of the 300 most populous cities globally, is particularly absurd because there are thousands of cities in the world, not just 300. According to 2016 UN data, there are 31 cities with populations of ten million or more, in which 8.7% of the world’s population lives. Additionally, there are 45 cities with populations between five and ten million, 436 cities with populations between one and five million, and 551 cities with populations between half a million and a million people. The exact number of cities with populations below half a million is not even listed, as there are likely thousands worldwide.
So, the figure of eight billion people on the planet is not simply made up. The social media video author reached a significantly smaller number because he simply ignored a wealth of data and only included a fraction of the world’s inhabited places in his calculations.
Are there too many people on Earth?
The answer to this question is complex. Conspiracy theorists on social media often view it from just one angle—whether there is enough space on the planet to physically fit all its residents. The answer to that question is obviously yes.
It is also true that it would technically be possible to physically “cram” the entire Earth’s population into the territory of Texas. However, that population would not be able to survive because a territory of that size does not have enough resources to support eight billion people (link). This is where the real problem lies.
Humans cannot survive in just any part of the Earth’s landmass, and we have already inhabited nearly all areas that have the necessary resources.
It’s a very simple calculation. Humans need food and water to survive. The more people there are, the more water sources, arable land, fishing grounds, and hunting grounds are needed, and none of these are unlimited. Currently, it is estimated that the Earth has enough resources to feed its population (though they are very unevenly distributed), but there has been concern for decades that this may no longer be the case in the future if the population continues to grow rapidly, as it has in recent centuries, and if we continue to pollute the planet and cause ecological disasters through our activities. Estimates of how many people the Earth can support range from two billion to a trillion.
Of course, it’s not just about the number of people, but also about how they live and consume resources. For example, it is estimated that if everyone lived and consumed resources like the average American, the Earth could only support two billion people. On the other hand, if everyone only consumed what they needed, it could support a much larger population (link).
A significant portion of the expert demographic community does not believe that population growth will be a problem in the future, partly because it is expected to naturally slow down and partly because they believe people will find new, innovative solutions for producing and distributing resources (link, link).
So, whether or not Earth is overpopulated cannot be answered with a straightforward response. It’s a question that sparks debate and whose answer may be influenced by various factors.
From the decades-long public discourse on this topic, a depopulation conspiracy theory has emerged in recent years. Its supporters believe that “globalist elites” use claims about Earth’s overpopulation as an excuse for depopulation, that is, the mass killing of the population. Raskrinkavanje has already written about this “conspiratorial” narrative here and here.
In reality, there is no international institution or organization advocating for the depopulation of the planet. Organizations like the United Nations advocate for better resource distribution and the creation and implementation of sustainable systems to make the standard of living around the world more equitable and to ensure a brighter future for all, not to carry out a plan of mass killing people across the globe.
The claim that the official population count of Earth is falsified, and that “independent calculations” show it to be less than three billion, is considered fake news and a conspiracy theory. Additionally, the idea that the “overpopulation myth” is part of a globalist conspiracy to limit freedom and reduce the population is also assessed as a conspiracy theory.
